How long until a home doubles in value at a given appreciation rate? Tells you the long-term outlook for any city.
Time to double
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In 5 years
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In 10 years
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In 20 years
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In 30 years
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The Rule of 72
Quick mental math: years to double ≈ 72 ÷ annual rate. At 6% appreciation, a home doubles in ~12 years. At 4%, ~18 years. At 8%, ~9 years.
This is a useful sanity check on appreciation expectations. A city showing 12%/yr growth would double home values every 6 years — almost certainly unsustainable.
Long-term US average
US home values have appreciated at ~4-5% nominally per year (3-4% real after inflation) over the past 50 years. Cities consistently above 7-8% are either catching up from a low base or in the middle of a bubble.