Mesa, AZ — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·Arizona·Mesa

Maricopa County · Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler · population 517,151

Renter-friendlyBig-city amenities
Mesa, AZ
Image: Wikipedia · Mesa, Arizona
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
View watchlist →
53
Stable
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Mesa stands

Steady, no major recent move.

Median home $435,670
1-year -1.5%
5-yr CAGR +4.0%
vs 5-yr peak -8.5%
Population +0.6%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2022-07$436k$203k$300k$398k$495k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
52/100
Somewhat walkable
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
45/100
Some transit
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
72/100
Strong remote-work fit
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$1,561/mo$1,237$1,462$1,687202220242026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent122119100120202220242026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 23.3
Lean rent

At a 23.3 price-to-rent ratio, the math is starting to lean toward renting in Mesa. Owner-occupier ROI requires longer holds and the assumption that prices keep appreciating roughly at the rate of rent.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
42 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
59 · w22%
Distance from peak
50 · w18%
Population growth
58 · w16%
Rent YoY
41 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
76 · w10%
Long thesis

Mesa is a major US metro showing +4.0% annualized appreciation with 517,151 residents — scale plus growth. The kind of city that doesn't need a thesis; the data has been making its own case for years.

Short thesis

Mesa's bear case is the boring one: the cycle is real and any market that's run hard can stall. Watch for slowing population growth, rising days-on-market, or builder discounts as the early warning signals.

About Mesa

Mesa is a city in Maricopa County, Arizona, with an estimated population of 517,151. It anchors the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro area. The population grew 0.6% annually from 2020 to 2024, a moderate gain. The median home value in Mesa is $435,670 as of 2026-04, down 1.5% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +4.0% annual growth (-8.5% from the 5-year peak). Rents in Mesa average $1,561 per month, roughly flat year-over-year (-0.8%). The composite momentum score is 53 of 100 (Stable). Conditions are neither hot nor cold, so the local fit matters more than market timing.

▲ Bull case

○Scale = optionality: 517,151 population gives you airports, hospitals, a deep job market, and a real cultural scene.
○The data is the data: Mesa has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 2-criteria momentum score on this page.

▼ Bear case

○Local nuance: city-level data smooths over neighborhood differences. School zones, HOA rules, and street-level character matter — visit before deciding.

About Mesa (Wikipedia)

Mesa is a city in Maricopa County, Arizona, United States. The population was 504,258 at the 2020 census. It is the third-most populous city in Arizona, after Phoenix and Tucson, the 37th-most populous city in the U.S., and the most populous city that is not a county seat. It is the most populous city in the East Valley of the Phoenix metropolitan area. It borders Tempe on the west, the Salt River Pima–Maricopa Indian Community on the north, Chandler and Gilbert on the south along with Queen Creek, and Apache Junction on the east.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

City facts

Area139.42 sq mi
Elevation1,326 ft
Founded1878
Density3633.14/sq mi

Extracted from the Wikipedia infobox. Values may be slightly out of date relative to the latest sources.

Things to see in Mesa(Cultural attractions)

  • Hohokam Stadium, home of the Athletics and former home of the Chicago Cubs during the Cactus League
  • Sloan Park, the Cactus League spring training home of the Chicago Cubs
  • Mesa Arts Center
  • Mesa Amphitheater
  • Museums
  • Archeological sites
  • Public libraries
  • Water parks
  • The only highrise in Mesa is the Bank of America (formerly Western Savings) building near Fiesta Mall.
  • Organ Stop Pizza, containing the world's largest Wurlitzer organ
  • Legacy Park a 320-acre sports and recreation complex

Extracted from the Wikipedia article. Names linked in the source — open the city’s Wikipedia page for details.

Playbook

Buyer

Lifestyle fit matters more than market timing in a Stable market. Take your time on the home and neighborhood; the macro trend isn't urgent. Negotiate normally.

Seller

Price competitively from day one or risk a 60+ day listing. Staging, photography, and presentation matter more in Stable markets than in Hot ones.

Investor

Stable cap rates, no big appreciation story to lean on. Underwrite this as a pure cash-flow play — the math has to work on rent alone.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Maricopa County right now.

NWS active alerts (AZ)Arizona Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Maricopa County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Neighborhoods of Mesa

135 tracked · ranked by median home value
1Citrus$1,408,035+4.6%
2Spyglass Estates$1,331,305+3.8%
3Estate Groves and Valencia Estates$1,225,529+1.7%
4Thunder Mountain$1,126,126-4.3%
5Forest Knoll North$1,027,520+0.2%
6Madrid$989,673+5.3%
7Mahogany$977,651+0.3%
8Northgrove$912,841+1.4%
9Lehi$897,243+0.4%
10Desert Uplands$891,136+1.3%
11East Orangewood Estates$718,055-1.3%
12Montecito$713,881+1.6%
13Las Sendas$711,582-1.5%
14Grandview Estates$694,440-0.4%
15Saguaro Mountain$675,076-1.2%
16Sierra Estates$668,339-3.9%
17Mountain Heights$663,175-1.7%
18Boulder Mountain$648,996+0.9%
19Dana Ranch$640,516-0.1%
20Salerno Ranch$636,900-1.4%
21Saguaro Shadows$622,266-2.2%
22Citrus Highlands$603,154-1.1%
23Pacific Palms$594,070-0.6%
24Hohokam Highlands$589,870-0.8%

See the full neighborhood ranking →

Cities like Mesa

Tucson, AZ56 · StableChandler, AZ51 · StableGlendale, AZ52 · StablePeoria, AZ54 · Stable

Run the numbers for Mesa

ToolCan I afford Mesa?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a Mesa rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare Mesa to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolMesa cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
65° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
106° / 79°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
286
~78% of year
Annual precip
14″ rain
2″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
High
Earthquake
Low
Flood
Low

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Mesa listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
36%
Very dry climate
Median household income
$72,900
Arizona state median
Top industries (state-level)
HealthcareConstructionTech

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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