Payson, AZ — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

Gila County · Payson · population 16,762

Small-town feel
View watchlist →
61
Stable
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Payson stands

Steady, no major recent move.

Median home $446,161
1-year -1.4%
5-yr CAGR +4.7%
vs 5-yr peak -2.3%
Population +0.6%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2022-07$446k$216k$302k$389k$475k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
32/100
Very car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
15/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
83/100
Excellent for remote work
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 19.6
Lean buy

At a 19.6 price-to-rent ratio, Payson is in the 'depends on horizon' zone. Buy if you'll be there 5+ years and value flexibility on the home; rent if you might move, want zero maintenance friction, or expect rates to drop.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
43 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
63 · w22%
Distance from peak
76 · w18%
Population growth
57 · w16%
Home 10-yr CAGR
73 · w10%
Long thesis

Payson has held up across the cycle: home values at $446,161 with +4.7% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Payson's bear case is the boring one: the cycle is real and any market that's run hard can stall. Watch for slowing population growth, rising days-on-market, or builder discounts as the early warning signals.

About Payson

Payson is a city in Gila County, Arizona, with an estimated population of 16,762. The population grew 0.6% annually from 2020 to 2024, a moderate gain. The median home value in Payson is $446,161 as of 2026-04, down 1.4% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +4.7% annual growth (-2.3% from the 5-year peak). Rents in Payson average $1,894 per month. The composite momentum score is 61 of 100 (Stable). Conditions are neither hot nor cold, so the local fit matters more than market timing.

Bull case

Held the highs: currently -2.3% from the 5-year peak — this market refused to give back gains.
The data is the data: Payson has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 2-criteria momentum score on this page.

Bear case

Local nuance: city-level data smooths over neighborhood differences. School zones, HOA rules, and street-level character matter — visit before deciding.

Playbook

Buyer

Lifestyle fit matters more than market timing in a Stable market. Take your time on the home and neighborhood; the macro trend isn't urgent. Negotiate normally.

Seller

Price competitively from day one or risk a 60+ day listing. Staging, photography, and presentation matter more in Stable markets than in Hot ones.

Investor

Stable cap rates, no big appreciation story to lean on. Underwrite this as a pure cash-flow play — the math has to work on rent alone.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Gila County right now.

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Gila County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Cities like Payson

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
65° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
106° / 79°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
286
~78% of year
Annual precip
14″ rain
2″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
High
Earthquake
Low
Flood
Low

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Payson listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Payson area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
36%
Very dry climate
Median household income
$72,900
Arizona state median
Top industries (state-level)
HealthcareConstructionTech

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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