Modesto, CA — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·California·Modesto

Stanislaus County · Modesto · population 220,592

Modesto, CA
Image: Wikipedia · Modesto, California
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
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59
Stable
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Modesto stands

At or near all-time high.

Median home $447,353
1-year -0.6%
5-yr CAGR +3.5%
vs 5-yr peak -1.0%
Population +0.2%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2025-01$447k$218k$302k$386k$470k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
64/100
Somewhat walkable
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
38/100
Minimal transit
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
76/100
Strong remote-work fit
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$1,996/mo$1,484$1,802$2,119202220242026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent119126100120202220242026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 18.7
Lean buy

At a 18.7 price-to-rent ratio, Modesto is in the 'depends on horizon' zone. Buy if you'll be there 5+ years and value flexibility on the home; rent if you might move, want zero maintenance friction, or expect rates to drop.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
47 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
56 · w22%
Distance from peak
84 · w18%
Population growth
50 · w16%
Rent YoY
49 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
72 · w10%
Long thesis

Modesto has held up across the cycle: home values at $447,353 with +3.5% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Modesto's bear case is the boring one: the cycle is real and any market that's run hard can stall. Watch for slowing population growth, rising days-on-market, or builder discounts as the early warning signals.

About Modesto

Modesto is a city in Stanislaus County, California, with an estimated population of 220,592. The median home value in Modesto is $447,353 as of 2026-04, down 0.6% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +3.5% annual growth, with prices at or near the 5-year peak. Rents in Modesto average $1,996 per month, roughly flat year-over-year (+0.6%). The composite momentum score is 59 of 100 (Stable). Conditions are neither hot nor cold, so the local fit matters more than market timing.

▲ Bull case

●Held the highs: currently -1.0% from the 5-year peak — this market refused to give back gains.
○The data is the data: Modesto has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 2-criteria momentum score on this page.

▼ Bear case

○Local nuance: city-level data smooths over neighborhood differences. School zones, HOA rules, and street-level character matter — visit before deciding.

About Modesto (Wikipedia)

Modesto is the county seat of and the largest city in Stanislaus County, California, United States. With a population of 218,069 according to 2022 U.S. Census Bureau estimates, it is the 19th-most populous city in California.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

City facts

MayorSue Zwahlen
Area44.80 sq mi
Elevation89 ft
FoundedNovember 8, 1870
NicknameCity of Great Neighbors
MottoWater Wealth Contentment Health
Density5007.59/sq mi
Named forModesty of William Chapman Ralston

Extracted from the Wikipedia infobox. Values may be slightly out of date relative to the latest sources.

Things to see in Modesto(Tourism)

  • McHenry Mansion – Built in the early 1880s by Robert McHenry, a local rancher and banker. The mansion is included on the National Register of Historic Places. Tours are given.
  • McHenry Museum – Across the street from the McHenry Mansion. It is filled with tidbits from Modesto's history.
  • Gallo Center for the Arts – Center for the performing arts opened in 2007 and located in downtown Modesto at 1000 "I" Street.
  • The State Theatre – Dating back to the 1920s, it was recently renovated and serves as a local performance arts center and as a theater specializing in independent and foreign films.
  • John Thurman Field – Renovated stadium, home of the Modesto Nuts baseball team (single "A" affiliate of the Seattle Mariners team).

Extracted from the Wikipedia article. Names linked in the source — open the city’s Wikipedia page for details.

Playbook

Buyer

Lifestyle fit matters more than market timing in a Stable market. Take your time on the home and neighborhood; the macro trend isn't urgent. Negotiate normally.

Seller

Price competitively from day one or risk a 60+ day listing. Staging, photography, and presentation matter more in Stable markets than in Hot ones.

Investor

Stable cap rates, no big appreciation story to lean on. Underwrite this as a pure cash-flow play — the math has to work on rent alone.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Stanislaus County right now.

NWS active alerts (CA)California Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Stanislaus County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Cities like Modesto

Oxnard, CA57 · StableSalinas, CA59 · StableTurlock, CA57 · StableRedding, CA56 · Stable

Run the numbers for Modesto

ToolCan I afford Modesto?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a Modesto rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare Modesto to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolModesto cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
60° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
82° / 60°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
258
~71% of year
Annual precip
22″ rain
8″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
Very high
Earthquake
Very high
Flood
Moderate

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Modesto listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Modesto area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
65%
Moderate climate
Median household income
$91,500
California state median
Top industries (state-level)
TechEntertainmentAgriculture

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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