San Carlos, CA — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·California·San Carlos

San Mateo County · San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley · population 29,403

Shrinking
San Carlos, CA
Image: Wikipedia · San Carlos, California
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
View watchlist →
62
Rising
Momentum score · 0–100

Where San Carlos stands

At or near all-time high. population shrinking 1.1% per year. rents up 5.7% in the last year.

Median home $2,476,617
1-year +3.0%
5-yr CAGR +4.2%
vs 5-yr peak -1.7%
Population -1.1%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2022-06$2477k$1438k$1832k$2226k$2620k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
32/100
Very car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
15/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
42/100
Marginal for remote
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$4,213/mo$3,095$3,783$4,471202220242026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent123128100120202220242026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 49.0
Rent

At a 49.0 price-to-rent ratio, renting beats buying in San Carlos for most shorter holds. The premium you pay to own would take many years of rent savings to recoup, and that's before maintenance, taxes, and opportunity cost on the down payment.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
65 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
60 · w22%
Distance from peak
80 · w18%
Population growth
29 · w16%
Rent YoY
83 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
57 · w10%
Long thesis

San Carlos has held up across the cycle: home values at $2,476,617 with +4.2% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

San Carlos's population is shrinking 1.1% per year. Housing demand has to come from somewhere — if people are leaving, the buyer pool is shrinking faster than the inventory. That eventually shows up in price.

About San Carlos

San Carlos is a city in San Mateo County, California, with an estimated population of 29,403. It anchors the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro area. The population has contracted 1.1% per year on average since 2020. The median home value in San Carlos is $2,476,617 as of 2026-04, up 3.0% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +4.2% annual growth, with prices at or near the 5-year peak. Rents in San Carlos average $4,213 per month, up 5.7% year-over-year. The composite momentum score is 62 of 100 (Rising). The market is healthy with prices supported by underlying demand.

▲ Bull case

●Quiet strength: +3.0% over the trailing year — not a melt-up, but the market is bid.
●Held the highs: currently -1.7% from the 5-year peak — this market refused to give back gains.
●Hot rental market: rents up 5.7% YoY — landlords have pricing power, supports new investment math.

▼ Bear case

●Net out-migration: population shrinking 1.1% per year — services, schools, and tax base will follow.
●Premium territory: $2,476,617 median home is a high bar to clear — affordability constrains the buyer pool.

About San Carlos (Wikipedia)

San Carlos is a city in San Mateo County, California, United States. San Carlos is a part of Silicon Valley. The population is 30,722 per the 2020 census.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

Playbook

Buyer

You're not in a frenzy but you're not getting bargains either. Make a competitive offer with normal inspection terms. Don't lowball — the listing will move with or without you.

Seller

Price at fair market value; expect movement in 30-45 days. Don't get clever with terms (rent-back, contingencies) — buyers in a Rising market have options.

Investor

Appreciation tailwind exists but cash flow requires discipline on price. Run the numbers conservatively and confirm rent comps before committing.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for San Mateo County right now.

NWS active alerts (CA)California Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. San Mateo County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Cities like San Carlos

Hermosa Beach, CA63 · RisingBelmont, CA62 · RisingEl Segundo, CA62 · RisingTemple City, CA63 · Rising

Run the numbers for San Carlos

ToolCan I afford San Carlos?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a San Carlos rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare San Carlos to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolSan Carlos cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
60° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
82° / 60°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
258
~71% of year
Annual precip
22″ rain
8″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
Very high
Earthquake
Very high
Flood
Moderate

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current San Carlos listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
65%
Moderate climate
Median household income
$91,500
California state median
Top industries (state-level)
TechEntertainmentAgriculture

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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