Tucumcari, NM — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·New Mexico·Tucumcari

Quay County · population 5,058

AffordabilityBargain huntersShrinkingSmall-town feel

Overview Cost of living Moving guide

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Declining

Momentum score · 0–100

Where Tucumcari stands

16% off 5-year peak. home values down 15.0% in the last year. population shrinking 1.1% per year.

Median home $77,339

1-year -15.0%

5-yr CAGR +1.8%

vs 5-yr peak -15.9%

Population -1.1%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly

Lifestyle scores

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Walkability

25/100

Very car-dependent

Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.

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Public transit

10/100

Transit limited

Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.

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Remote work fit

32/100

Poor remote-work fit

Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →

Home YoY

5 · w22%

Home 5-yr CAGR

46 · w22%

Distance from peak

29 · w18%

Population growth

29 · w16%

Home 10-yr CAGR

36 · w10%

Long thesis

Tucumcari has held up across the cycle: home values at $77,339 with +1.8% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Tucumcari is down 15.0% over the last 12 months and the trend isn't flattening. Falling knife rule applies: you don't catch one with your hands, you wait for it to hit the floor and stop moving.

About Tucumcari

Tucumcari is a city in Quay County, New Mexico, with an estimated population of 5,058. The population has contracted 1.1% per year on average since 2020. The median home value in Tucumcari is $77,339 as of 2026-04, down 15.0% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +1.8% annual growth, and the market currently sits about 16% below its 5-year peak. The composite momentum score is 28 of 100 (Declining). The market is well off recent highs — patient long-term buyers may find opportunities, but resale liquidity is reduced.

▲ Bull case

●Cheap entry point: $77,339 median home is well below the US median of $355k — room to grow without overpaying.

○The data is the data: Tucumcari has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 2-criteria momentum score on this page.

▼ Bear case

●Prices actively falling: down 15.0% in the last 12 months — buyer sentiment has flipped. Sellers competing on price.

●Net out-migration: population shrinking 1.1% per year — services, schools, and tax base will follow.

●16% off recent peak — buyers are getting through-the-cycle pricing, not the peak.

●Stagnant long-run trend: +1.4% 10-year CAGR plus flat population — appreciation case is weak.

○Thin housing market: small population means fewer transactions and slower resale. Liquidity risk on exit.

Playbook

Buyer

Make sure you're not catching a falling knife. Verify local fundamentals — jobs, population trend, school enrollment — before assuming the bottom is in. Negotiate hard and walk away from anything that doesn't pencil.

Seller

Be realistic. Below-list pricing may be required; time is not your friend. If you can wait 2-3 years for the cycle to turn, consider holding.

Investor

Cap rates can look great in Declining markets, but verify tenant pool, income stability, and exit liquidity before committing. A 10% cap on a vacant property is 0%.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Quay County right now.

NWS active alerts (NM)New Mexico Emergency Management How to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Quay County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.