Prince William County · Washington-Arlington-Alexandria · population 5,978
Where Dumfries stands
At or near all-time high.
Home value trajectory · last 10 years
Zillow ZHVI · monthlyLifestyle scores
Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.
Rent trajectory · last 5 years
Zillow ZORI · monthlyHome value vs rent · indexed to 100
Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)Rent vs buy
At a 18.1 price-to-rent ratio, Dumfries is in the 'depends on horizon' zone. Buy if you'll be there 5+ years and value flexibility on the home; rent if you might move, want zero maintenance friction, or expect rates to drop.
How the momentum score breaks down
methodology →Dumfries has held up across the cycle: home values at $598,827 with +4.4% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.
Dumfries's bear case is the boring one: the cycle is real and any market that's run hard can stall. Watch for slowing population growth, rising days-on-market, or builder discounts as the early warning signals.
About Dumfries
Dumfries is a city in Prince William County, Virginia, with an estimated population of 5,978. It anchors the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro area. The population grew 1.3% annually from 2020 to 2024, a moderate gain. The median home value in Dumfries is $598,827 as of 2026-04, up 0.2% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +4.4% annual growth, with prices at or near the 5-year peak. Rents in Dumfries average $2,751 per month, roughly flat year-over-year (+0.7%). The composite momentum score is 64 of 100 (Rising). The market is healthy with prices supported by underlying demand.
▲ Bull case
▼ Bear case
Playbook
You're not in a frenzy but you're not getting bargains either. Make a competitive offer with normal inspection terms. Don't lowball — the listing will move with or without you.
Price at fair market value; expect movement in 30-45 days. Don't get clever with terms (rent-back, contingencies) — buyers in a Rising market have options.
Appreciation tailwind exists but cash flow requires discipline on price. Run the numbers conservatively and confirm rent comps before committing.
Local safety & alerts
No active National Weather Service alerts for Prince William County right now.
Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Prince William County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.
Cities like Dumfries
Run the numbers for Dumfries
Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.
Climate & natural-disaster risk
State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.
Local sports teams
Major professional teams the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.
Current weather
Find rentals & listings
Open current Dumfries listings on the major real-estate sites.
Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.
Local economy & environment
Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.
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