Nogales, AZ — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·Arizona·Nogales

Santa Cruz County · Nogales · population 19,965

First-time buyersSmall-town feel
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
View watchlist →
65
Rising
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Nogales stands

At or near all-time high.

Median home $223,449
1-year +0.7%
5-yr CAGR +4.5%
vs 5-yr peak +0.0%
Population +0.2%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2026-04$223k$104k$147k$190k$232k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
32/100
Very car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
15/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
86/100
Excellent for remote work
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
53 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
62 · w22%
Distance from peak
90 · w18%
Population growth
50 · w16%
Home 10-yr CAGR
75 · w10%
Long thesis

Nogales has held up across the cycle: home values at $223,449 with +4.5% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Nogales's bear case is the boring one: the cycle is real and any market that's run hard can stall. Watch for slowing population growth, rising days-on-market, or builder discounts as the early warning signals.

About Nogales

Nogales is a city in Santa Cruz County, Arizona, with an estimated population of 19,965. The median home value in Nogales is $223,449 as of 2026-04, up 0.7% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +4.5% annual growth, with prices at or near the 5-year peak. The composite momentum score is 65 of 100 (Rising). The market is healthy with prices supported by underlying demand.

▲ Bull case

●Held the highs: currently +0.0% from the 5-year peak — this market refused to give back gains.
○The data is the data: Nogales has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 2-criteria momentum score on this page.

▼ Bear case

○Local nuance: city-level data smooths over neighborhood differences. School zones, HOA rules, and street-level character matter — visit before deciding.

Playbook

Buyer

You're not in a frenzy but you're not getting bargains either. Make a competitive offer with normal inspection terms. Don't lowball — the listing will move with or without you.

Seller

Price at fair market value; expect movement in 30-45 days. Don't get clever with terms (rent-back, contingencies) — buyers in a Rising market have options.

Investor

Appreciation tailwind exists but cash flow requires discipline on price. Run the numbers conservatively and confirm rent comps before committing.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Santa Cruz County right now.

NWS active alerts (AZ)Arizona Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Santa Cruz County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Cities like Nogales

Litchfield Park, AZ56 · StableSierra Vista, AZ63 · RisingCamp Verde, AZ68 · RisingFountain Hills, AZ61 · Stable

Run the numbers for Nogales

ToolCan I afford Nogales?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a Nogales rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare Nogales to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolNogales cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
65° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
106° / 79°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
286
~78% of year
Annual precip
14″ rain
2″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
High
Earthquake
Low
Flood
Low

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Nogales listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Nogales area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
36%
Very dry climate
Median household income
$72,900
Arizona state median
Top industries (state-level)
HealthcareConstructionTech

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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