What to know before you move: cost, market timing, who it fits.
If you're considering a move to Surprise, AZ, the most important variables are the local housing market, the cost structure (taxes, insurance, utilities), and how well the city fits your day-to-day life. This page summarizes the housing market read; pair it with the cost of living page for the full picture.
Surprise is a city in Maricopa County, Arizona, with an estimated population of 167,564. It anchors the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro area. The population has grown 4.0% per year on average between 2020 and 2024 — among the faster-growing communities in the state. The median home value in Surprise is $422,520 as of 2026-04, down 2.3% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +3.6% annual growth, and the market currently sits about 14% below its 5-year peak. Rents in Surprise average $1,931 per month, roughly flat year-over-year (+0.6%). The composite momentum score is 54 of 100 (Stable). Conditions are neither hot nor cold, so the local fit matters more than market timing.
Sideways market (-2.3% YoY). No urgency to time the macro trend — focus on the home and neighborhood.
Reasons people move here
- People are voting with their feet: population growing 4.0% per year since 2020 — that's faster than ~80% of US cities.
- The data is the data: Surprise has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 2-criteria momentum score on this page.
Things to know first
- Cooling: -2.3% over the trailing year — momentum has stalled.
- 14% off recent peak — buyers are getting through-the-cycle pricing, not the peak.
More about Surprise
Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.