Surprise, AZ — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·Arizona·Surprise

Maricopa County · Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler · population 167,564

Growing fast
Surprise, AZ
Image: Wikipedia · Surprise, Arizona
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
View watchlist →
54
Stable
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Surprise stands

Population growing 4.0% per year.

Median home $422,520
1-year -2.3%
5-yr CAGR +3.6%
vs 5-yr peak -14.2%
Population +4.0%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2022-07$423k$208k$309k$411k$512k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
25/100
Very car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
30/100
Minimal transit
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
82/100
Excellent for remote work
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$1,931/mo$1,549$1,808$2,067202220242026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent119117100120140202220242026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 18.2
Lean buy

At a 18.2 price-to-rent ratio, Surprise is in the 'depends on horizon' zone. Buy if you'll be there 5+ years and value flexibility on the home; rent if you might move, want zero maintenance friction, or expect rates to drop.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
38 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
57 · w22%
Distance from peak
33 · w18%
Population growth
90 · w16%
Rent YoY
49 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
72 · w10%
Long thesis

Surprise has held up across the cycle: home values at $422,520 with +3.6% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Surprise's bear case is the boring one: the cycle is real and any market that's run hard can stall. Watch for slowing population growth, rising days-on-market, or builder discounts as the early warning signals.

About Surprise

Surprise is a city in Maricopa County, Arizona, with an estimated population of 167,564. It anchors the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro area. The population has grown 4.0% per year on average between 2020 and 2024 — among the faster-growing communities in the state. The median home value in Surprise is $422,520 as of 2026-04, down 2.3% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +3.6% annual growth, and the market currently sits about 14% below its 5-year peak. Rents in Surprise average $1,931 per month, roughly flat year-over-year (+0.6%). The composite momentum score is 54 of 100 (Stable). Conditions are neither hot nor cold, so the local fit matters more than market timing.

▲ Bull case

●People are voting with their feet: population growing 4.0% per year since 2020 — that’s faster than ~80% of US cities.
○The data is the data: Surprise has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 2-criteria momentum score on this page.

▼ Bear case

●Cooling: -2.3% over the trailing year — momentum has stalled.
●14% off recent peak — buyers are getting through-the-cycle pricing, not the peak.

About Surprise (Wikipedia)

Surprise is a city in Maricopa County, in the U.S. state of Arizona. The population was 143,148 at the 2020 census, up from 117,517 in 2010 and 30,848 in 2000.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

City facts

MayorKevin Sartor
Area110.52 sq mi
Elevation1385 ft
Founded1938
Density1297.78/sq mi

Extracted from the Wikipedia infobox. Values may be slightly out of date relative to the latest sources.

Playbook

Buyer

Lifestyle fit matters more than market timing in a Stable market. Take your time on the home and neighborhood; the macro trend isn't urgent. Negotiate normally.

Seller

Price competitively from day one or risk a 60+ day listing. Staging, photography, and presentation matter more in Stable markets than in Hot ones.

Investor

Stable cap rates, no big appreciation story to lean on. Underwrite this as a pure cash-flow play — the math has to work on rent alone.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Maricopa County right now.

NWS active alerts (AZ)Arizona Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Maricopa County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Cities like Surprise

Marana, AZ63 · RisingApache Junction, AZ59 · StableGoodyear, AZ57 · StableBuckeye, AZ57 · Stable

Run the numbers for Surprise

ToolCan I afford Surprise?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a Surprise rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare Surprise to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolSurprise cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
65° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
106° / 79°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
286
~78% of year
Annual precip
14″ rain
2″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
High
Earthquake
Low
Flood
Low

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Surprise listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
36%
Very dry climate
Median household income
$72,900
Arizona state median
Top industries (state-level)
HealthcareConstructionTech

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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