Atwater, CA — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·California·Atwater

Merced County · Merced · population 32,248

Atwater, CA
Image: Wikipedia · Atwater, California
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
View watchlist →
64
Rising
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Atwater stands

At or near all-time high.

Median home $423,396
1-year +0.5%
5-yr CAGR +4.4%
vs 5-yr peak -0.2%
Population +0.2%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2022-07$423k$199k$280k$360k$441k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
32/100
Very car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
22/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
76/100
Strong remote-work fit
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 20.5
Lean rent

At a 20.5 price-to-rent ratio, the math is starting to lean toward renting in Atwater. Owner-occupier ROI requires longer holds and the assumption that prices keep appreciating roughly at the rate of rent.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
52 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
61 · w22%
Distance from peak
89 · w18%
Population growth
49 · w16%
Home 10-yr CAGR
75 · w10%
Long thesis

Atwater has held up across the cycle: home values at $423,396 with +4.4% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Atwater's bear case is the boring one: the cycle is real and any market that's run hard can stall. Watch for slowing population growth, rising days-on-market, or builder discounts as the early warning signals.

About Atwater

Atwater is a city in Merced County, California, with an estimated population of 32,248. It anchors the Merced metro area. The median home value in Atwater is $423,396 as of 2026-04, up 0.5% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +4.4% annual growth, with prices at or near the 5-year peak. Rents in Atwater average $1,724 per month. The composite momentum score is 64 of 100 (Rising). The market is healthy with prices supported by underlying demand.

▲ Bull case

●Held the highs: currently -0.2% from the 5-year peak — this market refused to give back gains.
○The data is the data: Atwater has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 2-criteria momentum score on this page.

▼ Bear case

○Local nuance: city-level data smooths over neighborhood differences. School zones, HOA rules, and street-level character matter — visit before deciding.

About Atwater (Wikipedia)

Atwater, officially the City of Atwater, is a city on State Route 99 in Merced County, California, United States. Atwater is 8 miles (13 km) west-northwest of Merced, at an elevation of 151 feet (46 m). The population as of the 2020 census was 31,970, up from 28,168 in 2010.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

Playbook

Buyer

You're not in a frenzy but you're not getting bargains either. Make a competitive offer with normal inspection terms. Don't lowball — the listing will move with or without you.

Seller

Price at fair market value; expect movement in 30-45 days. Don't get clever with terms (rent-back, contingencies) — buyers in a Rising market have options.

Investor

Appreciation tailwind exists but cash flow requires discipline on price. Run the numbers conservatively and confirm rent comps before committing.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Merced County right now.

NWS active alerts (CA)California Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Merced County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Cities like Atwater

Ceres, CA62 · RisingYucaipa, CA60 · StableLoma Linda, CA66 · RisingPorterville, CA66 · Rising

Run the numbers for Atwater

ToolCan I afford Atwater?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a Atwater rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare Atwater to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolAtwater cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
60° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
82° / 60°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
258
~71% of year
Annual precip
22″ rain
8″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
Very high
Earthquake
Very high
Flood
Moderate

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Atwater listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Merced area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
65%
Moderate climate
Median household income
$91,500
California state median
Top industries (state-level)
TechEntertainmentAgriculture

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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