Tracy, CA — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·California·Tracy

San Joaquin County · Stockton · population 100,136

Tracy, CA
Image: Wikipedia · Tracy, California
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
View watchlist →
49
Stable
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Tracy stands

Home values down 5.5% in the last year.

Median home $695,156
1-year -5.5%
5-yr CAGR +3.1%
vs 5-yr peak -12.4%
Population +1.9%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2022-06$695k$376k$526k$676k$825k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
52/100
Somewhat walkable
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
30/100
Minimal transit
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
62/100
Workable for remote workers
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$2,666/mo$2,197$2,546$2,894202220242026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent116114100120202220242026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 21.7
Lean rent

At a 21.7 price-to-rent ratio, the math is starting to lean toward renting in Tracy. Owner-occupier ROI requires longer holds and the assumption that prices keep appreciating roughly at the rate of rent.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
23 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
53 · w22%
Distance from peak
38 · w18%
Population growth
78 · w16%
Rent YoY
52 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
65 · w10%
Long thesis

Tracy has held up across the cycle: home values at $695,156 with +3.1% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Tracy is down 5.5% over the last 12 months and the trend isn't flattening. Falling knife rule applies: you don't catch one with your hands, you wait for it to hit the floor and stop moving.

About Tracy

Tracy is a city in San Joaquin County, California, with an estimated population of 100,136. It anchors the Stockton metro area. The population grew 1.9% annually from 2020 to 2024, a moderate gain. The median home value in Tracy is $695,156 as of 2026-04, down 5.5% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +3.1% annual growth, and the market currently sits about 12% below its 5-year peak. Rents in Tracy average $2,666 per month, roughly flat year-over-year (+1.1%). The composite momentum score is 49 of 100 (Stable). Conditions are neither hot nor cold, so the local fit matters more than market timing.

▲ Bull case

●Net positive migration: population up 1.9% per year — demand fundamentals are intact.
○The data is the data: Tracy has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 2-criteria momentum score on this page.

▼ Bear case

●Prices actively falling: down 5.5% in the last 12 months — buyer sentiment has flipped. Sellers competing on price.
●12% off recent peak — buyers are getting through-the-cycle pricing, not the peak.

About Tracy (Wikipedia)

Tracy is the second most populated city in San Joaquin County, California, United States. The population was 93,000 at the 2020 census and estimated at 100,136 in 2024. Tracy is located inside a geographic triangle formed by Interstate 205 on the north side of the city, Interstate 5 to the east, and Interstate 580 to the southwest.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

City facts

MayorDan Arriola
Area26.03 sq mi
Elevation52 ft
IncorporatedJuly 22, 1910
MottoThink Inside the Triangle
Densityauto/sq mi

Extracted from the Wikipedia infobox. Values may be slightly out of date relative to the latest sources.

Playbook

Buyer

Lifestyle fit matters more than market timing in a Stable market. Take your time on the home and neighborhood; the macro trend isn't urgent. Negotiate normally.

Seller

Price competitively from day one or risk a 60+ day listing. Staging, photography, and presentation matter more in Stable markets than in Hot ones.

Investor

Stable cap rates, no big appreciation story to lean on. Underwrite this as a pure cash-flow play — the math has to work on rent alone.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for San Joaquin County right now.

NWS active alerts (CA)California Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. San Joaquin County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Cities like Tracy

Manteca, CA51 · StableElk Grove, CA52 · StableLos Banos, CA55 · StableSan Ramon, CA47 · Cooling

Run the numbers for Tracy

ToolCan I afford Tracy?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a Tracy rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare Tracy to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolTracy cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
60° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
82° / 60°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
258
~71% of year
Annual precip
22″ rain
8″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
Very high
Earthquake
Very high
Flood
Moderate

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Tracy listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Stockton area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
65%
Moderate climate
Median household income
$91,500
California state median
Top industries (state-level)
TechEntertainmentAgriculture

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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