Ukiah, CA — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

Mendocino County · Ukiah · population 16,067

Bargain huntersShrinkingSmall-town feel
View watchlist →
27
Declining
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Ukiah stands

21% off 5-year peak. population shrinking 0.8% per year.

Median home $486,824
1-year -2.9%
5-yr CAGR -3.3%
vs 5-yr peak -20.6%
Population -0.8%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2022-01$487k$384k$468k$553k$637k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
32/100
Very car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
15/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
50/100
Workable for remote workers
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$2,056/mo$0$1,089$2,1792026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent95111801002026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 19.7
Lean buy

At a 19.7 price-to-rent ratio, Ukiah is in the 'depends on horizon' zone. Buy if you'll be there 5+ years and value flexibility on the home; rent if you might move, want zero maintenance friction, or expect rates to drop.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
35 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
15 · w22%
Distance from peak
23 · w18%
Population growth
33 · w16%
Home 10-yr CAGR
37 · w10%
Long thesis

Ukiah has held up across the cycle: home values at $486,824 with -3.3% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Ukiah has given back 21% from its 5-year peak — that's not a healthy correction, it's a market still digesting an overshoot. The bear case is that the floor hasn't been found yet.

About Ukiah

Ukiah is a city in Mendocino County, California, with an estimated population of 16,067. The population has contracted 0.8% per year on average since 2020. The median home value in Ukiah is $486,824 as of 2026-04, down 2.9% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged -3.3% annual growth, and the market currently sits about 21% below its 5-year peak. Rents in Ukiah average $2,056 per month. The composite momentum score is 27 of 100 (Declining). The market is well off recent highs — patient long-term buyers may find opportunities, but resale liquidity is reduced.

Bull case

The data is the data: Ukiah has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 1-criteria momentum score on this page.

Bear case

21% off the 5-year peak. That’s not a healthy correction — that’s a market that ran too far and is still digesting.
Cooling: -2.9% over the trailing year — momentum has stalled.
Flat or shrinking population: -0.8% per year. Housing demand has to come from somewhere — verify the source.
Stagnant long-run trend: +1.6% 10-year CAGR plus flat population — appreciation case is weak.

Playbook

Buyer

Make sure you're not catching a falling knife. Verify local fundamentals — jobs, population trend, school enrollment — before assuming the bottom is in. Negotiate hard and walk away from anything that doesn't pencil. Ukiah is currently 21% off its 5-year peak — historically, that's been the discount tier of this market.

Seller

Be realistic. Below-list pricing may be required; time is not your friend. If you can wait 2-3 years for the cycle to turn, consider holding.

Investor

Cap rates can look great in Declining markets, but verify tenant pool, income stability, and exit liquidity before committing. A 10% cap on a vacant property is 0%.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Mendocino County right now.

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Mendocino County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Cities like Ukiah

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
60° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
82° / 60°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
258
~71% of year
Annual precip
22″ rain
8″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
Very high
Earthquake
Very high
Flood
Moderate

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Ukiah listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Ukiah area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
65%
Moderate climate
Median household income
$91,500
California state median
Top industries (state-level)
TechEntertainmentAgriculture

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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