Pasco County · Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater · population 64,866
Where Wesley Chapel stands
Home values down 4.1% in the last year.
Home value trajectory · last 10 years
Zillow ZHVI · monthlyLifestyle scores
Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.
Rent trajectory · last 5 years
Zillow ZORI · monthlyHome value vs rent · indexed to 100
Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)Rent vs buy
At a 14.9 price-to-rent ratio, buying generally beats renting in Wesley Chapel on a long-enough horizon. The headline math is that one year of mortgage payments approximates 14.9 years of rent — well below the 15+ threshold where ownership starts to dominate.
How the momentum score breaks down
methodology →Wesley Chapel has held up across the cycle: home values at $402,033 with +5.1% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.
Wesley Chapel is down 4.1% over the last 12 months and the trend isn't flattening. Falling knife rule applies: you don't catch one with your hands, you wait for it to hit the floor and stop moving.
About Wesley Chapel
Wesley Chapel is a city in Pasco County, Florida, with an estimated population of 64,866. It anchors the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area. The median home value in Wesley Chapel is $402,033 as of 2026-04, down 4.1% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +5.1% annual growth, and the market currently sits about 11% below its 5-year peak. Rents in Wesley Chapel average $2,256 per month, roughly flat year-over-year (-0.9%). The composite momentum score is 48 of 100 (Stable). Conditions are neither hot nor cold, so the local fit matters more than market timing.
▲ Bull case
▼ Bear case
Playbook
Lifestyle fit matters more than market timing in a Stable market. Take your time on the home and neighborhood; the macro trend isn't urgent. Negotiate normally.
Price competitively from day one or risk a 60+ day listing. Staging, photography, and presentation matter more in Stable markets than in Hot ones.
Stable cap rates, no big appreciation story to lean on. Underwrite this as a pure cash-flow play — the math has to work on rent alone.
Local safety & alerts
No active National Weather Service alerts for Pasco County right now.
Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Pasco County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.
Neighborhoods of Wesley Chapel
25 tracked · ranked by median home value1 more neighborhoods tracked — full list coming. Most expensive shown.
Cities like Wesley Chapel
Run the numbers for Wesley Chapel
Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.
Climate & natural-disaster risk
State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.
Local sports teams
Major professional teams the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.
Current weather
Find rentals & listings
Open current Wesley Chapel listings on the major real-estate sites.
Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.
Local economy & environment
Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.
Cities similar to Wesley Chapel
Explore other places with comparable momentum or affordability.