Chapel Hill, NC — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·North Carolina·Chapel Hill

Orange County · Durham-Chapel Hill · population 64,028

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Chapel Hill, NC
Image: Wikipedia · Chapel Hill, North Carolina
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
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64
Rising
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Chapel Hill stands

At or near all-time high.

Median home $634,403
1-year -0.7%
5-yr CAGR +6.9%
vs 5-yr peak -0.8%
Population +0.8%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2025-06$634k$325k$438k$552k$665k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
35/100
Car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
22/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
75/100
Strong remote-work fit
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$1,735/mo$1,269$1,575$1,882202220242026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent139129100120140202220242026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 30.5
Rent

At a 30.5 price-to-rent ratio, renting beats buying in Chapel Hill for most shorter holds. The premium you pay to own would take many years of rent savings to recoup, and that's before maintenance, taxes, and opportunity cost on the down payment.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
47 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
74 · w22%
Distance from peak
85 · w18%
Population growth
61 · w16%
Rent YoY
45 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
69 · w10%
Long thesis

Chapel Hill has held up across the cycle: home values at $634,403 with +6.9% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Chapel Hill's bear case is the boring one: the cycle is real and any market that's run hard can stall. Watch for slowing population growth, rising days-on-market, or builder discounts as the early warning signals.

About Chapel Hill

Chapel Hill is a city in Orange County, North Carolina, with an estimated population of 64,028. It anchors the Durham-Chapel Hill metro area. The population grew 0.8% annually from 2020 to 2024, a moderate gain. The median home value in Chapel Hill is $634,403 as of 2026-04, down 0.7% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +6.9% annual growth, with prices at or near the 5-year peak. Rents in Chapel Hill average $1,735 per month, roughly flat year-over-year (-0.1%). The composite momentum score is 64 of 100 (Rising). The market is healthy with prices supported by underlying demand.

▲ Bull case

●Healthy 5-year run: +6.9% annualized over 5 years, outpacing US inflation.
●Held the highs: currently -0.8% from the 5-year peak — this market refused to give back gains.

▼ Bear case

○Local nuance: city-level data smooths over neighborhood differences. School zones, HOA rules, and street-level character matter — visit before deciding.

About Chapel Hill (Wikipedia)

Chapel Hill is a town in the counties of Orange and Durham, North Carolina, United States. Its population was 61,960 in the 2020 United States census, making Chapel Hill the 17th-most populous municipality in the state. Chapel Hill and Durham make up the Durham–Chapel Hill, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, which had an estimated population of 608,879 in 2023. When it is combined with Raleigh, the state capital, they make up the corners of the Research Triangle, which had an estimated population of 2,368,947 in 2023.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

City facts

Area21.75 sq mi
Elevation262 ft
Founded1793
NicknameSouthern Part of Heaven
Motto"Learning, Serving & Working Together To Build A Community Where People Thrive."
Density2869.05/sq mi

Extracted from the Wikipedia infobox. Values may be slightly out of date relative to the latest sources.

Playbook

Buyer

You're not in a frenzy but you're not getting bargains either. Make a competitive offer with normal inspection terms. Don't lowball — the listing will move with or without you.

Seller

Price at fair market value; expect movement in 30-45 days. Don't get clever with terms (rent-back, contingencies) — buyers in a Rising market have options.

Investor

Appreciation tailwind exists but cash flow requires discipline on price. Run the numbers conservatively and confirm rent comps before committing.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Orange County right now.

NWS active alerts (NC)North Carolina Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Orange County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Neighborhoods of Chapel Hill

36 tracked · ranked by median home value
1The Oaks$1,672,441+3.2%
2Laurel Hill – Rocky Ridge$1,438,074+2.4%
3Franklin-Rosemary Historic District$1,296,709+5.8%
4Chesley$1,276,393+1.1%
5Silver Creek$1,271,381-1.4%
6Meadowmont$1,054,327+5.0%
7Greenwood$1,027,403-5.4%
8Coker Hills$1,013,193-0.5%
9Larkspur$1,000,428-0.8%
10Lake Forest$938,397+2.6%
11Chandlers Green$936,993-1.1%
12Forest Creek$894,084-2.1%
13Ironwoods$830,223-0.7%
14Estes Hills$801,144+0.4%
15Southern Village$793,783+1.1%
16South Bridge$734,938+2.8%
17Springcrest$706,493-4.0%
18Northwood$692,813+1.4%
19Cameron-Mccauley$684,202-6.7%
20Briarcliff$675,306+1.1%
21Timberlyne$669,219-1.8%
22Parkside$663,958-0.8%
23Booker Creek$642,960+1.0%
24Northside$590,344-4.6%

See the full neighborhood ranking →

Cities like Chapel Hill

Boone, NC68 · RisingMooresville, NC68 · RisingRocky Mount, NC59 · StableWilmington, NC68 · Rising

Run the numbers for Chapel Hill

ToolCan I afford Chapel Hill?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a Chapel Hill rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare Chapel Hill to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolChapel Hill cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
50° / 30°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
88° / 68°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
213
~58% of year
Annual precip
50″ rain
6″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
High
Tornado
Moderate
Wildfire
Low
Earthquake
Very low
Flood
High

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Durham-Chapel Hill area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Chapel Hill listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
71%
Humid climate
Median household income
$67,500
North Carolina state median
Top industries (state-level)
Banking (Charlotte)Tech (RTP)Manufacturing

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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