Pennington County · Rapid City · population 13,887
Where Box Elder stands
At or near all-time high. population growing 4.3% per year. rents up 7.4% in the last year.
Home value trajectory · last 10 years
Zillow ZHVI · monthlyLifestyle scores
Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.
Rent trajectory · last 5 years
Zillow ZORI · monthlyHome value vs rent · indexed to 100
Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)Rent vs buy
At a 20.8 price-to-rent ratio, the math is starting to lean toward renting in Box Elder. Owner-occupier ROI requires longer holds and the assumption that prices keep appreciating roughly at the rate of rent.
How the momentum score breaks down
methodology →Box Elder has been growing population at 4.3% per year while home values compounded +6.7% annually. Demand-driven appreciation — the kind that persists as long as people keep showing up, which they currently are.
Box Elder's bear case is the boring one: the cycle is real and any market that's run hard can stall. Watch for slowing population growth, rising days-on-market, or builder discounts as the early warning signals.
About Box Elder
Box Elder is a city in Pennington County, South Dakota, with an estimated population of 13,887. It anchors the Rapid City metro area. The population has grown 4.3% per year on average between 2020 and 2024 — among the faster-growing communities in the state. The median home value in Box Elder is $366,882 as of 2026-04, up 3.1% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +6.7% annual growth, with prices at or near the 5-year peak. Rents in Box Elder average $1,472 per month, up 7.4% year-over-year. The composite momentum score is 78 of 100 (Hot). Buyers should expect competition and limited negotiation room in this market.
▲ Bull case
▼ Bear case
Playbook
Expect competition, escalation clauses, and pressure to waive inspections. Make your strongest offer up front — Hot markets reward decisiveness, not negotiation. If you can't write a clean offer, you may not be the best fit for this market right now.
Price slightly above recent comps and let multiple offers work. Days-on-market should be short. Don't accept the first offer in the first 48 hours unless it's significantly above ask.
Cap rates will look ugly in a Hot market — your thesis has to be appreciation, not yield. Don't expect cash flow; expect to ride the trend and exit before it stalls.
Local safety & alerts
No active National Weather Service alerts for Pennington County right now.
Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Pennington County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.
Cities like Box Elder
Run the numbers for Box Elder
Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.
Climate & natural-disaster risk
State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.
Current weather
Find rentals & listings
Open current Box Elder listings on the major real-estate sites.
Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.
Local sports teams
Major professional teams the Rapid City area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.
Local economy & environment
Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.
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