San Rafael, CA — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·California·San Rafael

Marin County · San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley · population 59,961

Shrinking
San Rafael, CA
Image: Wikipedia · San Rafael, California
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
View watchlist →
51
Stable
Momentum score · 0–100

Where San Rafael stands

Population shrinking 0.5% per year.

Median home $1,337,270
1-year +0.5%
5-yr CAGR +2.0%
vs 5-yr peak -7.4%
Population -0.5%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2022-06$1337k$805k$1037k$1270k$1502k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
52/100
Somewhat walkable
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
22/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
38/100
Marginal for remote
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$3,009/mo$2,314$2,763$3,213202220242026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent110122100120202220242026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 37.0
Rent

At a 37.0 price-to-rent ratio, renting beats buying in San Rafael for most shorter holds. The premium you pay to own would take many years of rent savings to recoup, and that's before maintenance, taxes, and opportunity cost on the down payment.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
53 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
47 · w22%
Distance from peak
53 · w18%
Population growth
37 · w16%
Rent YoY
67 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
56 · w10%
Long thesis

San Rafael has held up across the cycle: home values at $1,337,270 with +2.0% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

San Rafael's population is shrinking 0.5% per year. Housing demand has to come from somewhere — if people are leaving, the buyer pool is shrinking faster than the inventory. That eventually shows up in price.

About San Rafael

San Rafael is a city in Marin County, California, with an estimated population of 59,961. It anchors the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro area. The population has contracted 0.5% per year on average since 2020. The median home value in San Rafael is $1,337,270 as of 2026-04, up 0.5% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +2.0% annual growth (-7.4% from the 5-year peak). Rents in San Rafael average $3,009 per month, up 3.3% year-over-year. The composite momentum score is 51 of 100 (Stable). Conditions are neither hot nor cold, so the local fit matters more than market timing.

▲ Bull case

○The data is the data: San Rafael has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 1-criteria momentum score on this page.

▼ Bear case

●Expensive AND not growing: median home $1,337,270 with only +0.5% YoY. You’re paying premium pricing for a flat trend.
●Flat or shrinking population: -0.5% per year. Housing demand has to come from somewhere — verify the source.

About San Rafael (Wikipedia)

San Rafael is a city in and the county seat of Marin County, California, United States. The city is located in the North Bay region of the San Francisco Bay Area. As of the 2020 census, San Rafael had a population of 61,271.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

City facts

MayorKate Colin
Area22.54 sq mi
Elevation43 ft
IncorporatedFebruary 18, 1874
NicknameThe City With a Mission
Density3693.92/sq mi
Named forArchangel Raphael

Extracted from the Wikipedia infobox. Values may be slightly out of date relative to the latest sources.

Playbook

Buyer

Lifestyle fit matters more than market timing in a Stable market. Take your time on the home and neighborhood; the macro trend isn't urgent. Negotiate normally.

Seller

Price competitively from day one or risk a 60+ day listing. Staging, photography, and presentation matter more in Stable markets than in Hot ones.

Investor

Stable cap rates, no big appreciation story to lean on. Underwrite this as a pure cash-flow play — the math has to work on rent alone.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Marin County right now.

NWS active alerts (CA)California Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Marin County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Neighborhoods of San Rafael

25 tracked · ranked by median home value
1Country Club$2,443,453+1.0%
2Fairhills$2,235,733-1.3%
3Bayside Acres$2,205,082-5.4%
4Loch Lomond$2,163,034+2.5%
5Peacock Gap$2,022,718+7.1%
6Lucas Valley$1,936,286+5.5%
7Glenwood$1,640,576-0.8%
8Mont Marin/San Rafael Park$1,630,592+4.9%
9Dominican/Black Canyon$1,618,805+2.8%
10Sun Valley$1,575,699-1.1%
11West End$1,369,854-4.5%
12Terra Linda$1,357,412+0.4%
13California Park$1,345,265-0.6%
14Marinwood$1,301,602+2.8%
15Gerstle Park$1,244,769-3.0%
16Montecito/Happy Valley$1,238,083-2.1%
17Rafael Meadows/Los Ranchitos$1,218,834-4.6%
18Picnic Valley$1,175,547+1.5%
19Bret Harte$1,174,140+8.0%
20Lincoln/San Rafael Hill$1,071,559+1.1%
21Santa Venetia$1,021,114+0.0%
22Civic Center$916,268+0.3%
23Smith Ranch$615,094-2.8%
24Canal$530,323-1.5%

See the full neighborhood ranking →

Cities like San Rafael

South San Francisco, CA55 · StableSan Mateo, CA54 · StableSan Bruno, CA55 · StableWatsonville, CA56 · Stable

Run the numbers for San Rafael

ToolCan I afford San Rafael?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a San Rafael rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare San Rafael to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolSan Rafael cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
60° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
82° / 60°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
258
~71% of year
Annual precip
22″ rain
8″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
Very high
Earthquake
Very high
Flood
Moderate

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current San Rafael listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
65%
Moderate climate
Median household income
$91,500
California state median
Top industries (state-level)
TechEntertainmentAgriculture

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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