Prior Lake, MN — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·Minnesota·Prior Lake

Scott County · Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington · population 28,018

Prior Lake, MN
Image: Wikipedia · Prior Lake, Minnesota
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
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64
Rising
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Prior Lake stands

At or near all-time high.

Median home $531,466
1-year +2.1%
5-yr CAGR +3.6%
vs 5-yr peak +0.0%
Population +0.4%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2026-04$531k$305k$388k$470k$553k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
32/100
Very car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
15/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
72/100
Strong remote-work fit
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$1,994/mo$1,812$1,963$2,1132026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent1021031002026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 22.2
Lean rent

At a 22.2 price-to-rent ratio, the math is starting to lean toward renting in Prior Lake. Owner-occupier ROI requires longer holds and the assumption that prices keep appreciating roughly at the rate of rent.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
60 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
57 · w22%
Distance from peak
90 · w18%
Population growth
52 · w16%
Rent YoY
66 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
61 · w10%
Long thesis

Prior Lake has held up across the cycle: home values at $531,466 with +3.6% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Prior Lake's bear case is the boring one: the cycle is real and any market that's run hard can stall. Watch for slowing population growth, rising days-on-market, or builder discounts as the early warning signals.

About Prior Lake

Prior Lake is a city in Scott County, Minnesota, with an estimated population of 28,018. It anchors the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington metro area. The median home value in Prior Lake is $531,466 as of 2026-04, up 2.1% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +3.6% annual growth, with prices at or near the 5-year peak. Rents in Prior Lake average $1,994 per month, up 3.1% year-over-year. The composite momentum score is 64 of 100 (Rising). The market is healthy with prices supported by underlying demand.

▲ Bull case

●Quiet strength: +2.1% over the trailing year — not a melt-up, but the market is bid.
●Held the highs: currently +0.0% from the 5-year peak — this market refused to give back gains.

▼ Bear case

○Local nuance: city-level data smooths over neighborhood differences. School zones, HOA rules, and street-level character matter — visit before deciding.

About Prior Lake (Wikipedia)

Prior Lake is an exurban city 20 miles (32 km) southwest of Minneapolis, next to Savage and Shakopee in Scott County in the U.S. state of Minnesota. Surrounding the shores of Lower and Upper Prior Lake, the city is south of the Minnesota River in an area known as RiverSouth and establishes the urban fringe of the south-southwest portion of Minneapolis-St. Paul, the 16th-largest metropolitan area in the United States. The population was 27,617 at the 2020 census.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

Playbook

Buyer

You're not in a frenzy but you're not getting bargains either. Make a competitive offer with normal inspection terms. Don't lowball — the listing will move with or without you.

Seller

Price at fair market value; expect movement in 30-45 days. Don't get clever with terms (rent-back, contingencies) — buyers in a Rising market have options.

Investor

Appreciation tailwind exists but cash flow requires discipline on price. Run the numbers conservatively and confirm rent comps before committing.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Scott County right now.

NWS active alerts (MN)Minnesota Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Scott County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Cities like Prior Lake

Andover, MN65 · RisingSavage, MN63 · RisingShoreview, MN63 · RisingForest Lake, MN65 · Rising

Run the numbers for Prior Lake

ToolCan I afford Prior Lake?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a Prior Lake rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare Prior Lake to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolPrior Lake cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
22° / 4°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
82° / 62°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
198
~54% of year
Annual precip
28″ rain
45″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
High
Wildfire
Very low
Earthquake
Very low
Flood
Low

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Prior Lake listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
71%
Humid climate
Median household income
$84,300
Minnesota state median
Top industries (state-level)
Medical DevicesFinanceManufacturing

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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