Fairfax, VA — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·Virginia·Fairfax

Fairfax city · Washington-Arlington-Alexandria · population 26,340

Growing fastRenter-friendly
Fairfax, VA
Image: Wikipedia · Fairfax, Virginia
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
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61
Stable
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Fairfax stands

At or near all-time high. population growing 2.2% per year.

Median home $799,544
1-year -0.9%
5-yr CAGR +3.8%
vs 5-yr peak -0.9%
Population +2.2%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2025-04$800k$487k$604k$722k$839k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
32/100
Very car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
15/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
69/100
Strong remote-work fit
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$2,373/mo$1,757$2,167$2,577202220242026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent120127100120202220242026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 28.1
Rent

At a 28.1 price-to-rent ratio, renting beats buying in Fairfax for most shorter holds. The premium you pay to own would take many years of rent savings to recoup, and that's before maintenance, taxes, and opportunity cost on the down payment.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
46 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
58 · w22%
Distance from peak
85 · w18%
Population growth
82 · w16%
Rent YoY
34 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
56 · w10%
Long thesis

Fairfax has held up across the cycle: home values at $799,544 with +3.8% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Fairfax's rents are softening (-2.1% YoY) while home values stall (-0.9%). When rents fall, the cap-rate math gets ugly for investors and the 'rent vs buy' equation tilts toward renting — neither helps prices.

About Fairfax

Fairfax is a city in Fairfax city, Virginia, with an estimated population of 26,340. It anchors the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro area. The population has grown 2.2% per year on average between 2020 and 2024 — among the faster-growing communities in the state. The median home value in Fairfax is $799,544 as of 2026-04, down 0.9% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +3.8% annual growth, with prices at or near the 5-year peak. Rents in Fairfax average $2,373 per month, down 2.1% year-over-year. The composite momentum score is 61 of 100 (Stable). Conditions are neither hot nor cold, so the local fit matters more than market timing.

▲ Bull case

●People are voting with their feet: population growing 2.2% per year since 2020 — that’s faster than ~80% of US cities.
●Held the highs: currently -0.9% from the 5-year peak — this market refused to give back gains.

▼ Bear case

●Expensive AND not growing: median home $799,544 with only -0.9% YoY. You’re paying premium pricing for a flat trend.
○Local nuance: city-level data smooths over neighborhood differences. School zones, HOA rules, and street-level character matter — visit before deciding.

About Fairfax (Wikipedia)

Fairfax is an independent city in Virginia and the county seat of Fairfax County, Virginia, United States. As of the 2020 census, the population was 24,146.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

Playbook

Buyer

Lifestyle fit matters more than market timing in a Stable market. Take your time on the home and neighborhood; the macro trend isn't urgent. Negotiate normally.

Seller

Price competitively from day one or risk a 60+ day listing. Staging, photography, and presentation matter more in Stable markets than in Hot ones.

Investor

Stable cap rates, no big appreciation story to lean on. Underwrite this as a pure cash-flow play — the math has to work on rent alone.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Fairfax city right now.

NWS active alerts (VA)Virginia Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Fairfax city routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Neighborhoods of Fairfax

20 tracked · ranked by median home value
1North Hill$1,270,307+0.1%
2Lewis Park$1,253,718-1.2%
3Brecon Ridge$1,186,712-2.5%
4Hampton Forest$1,175,648-1.0%
5Mantua$1,135,102-0.1%
6Franklin Glen$984,218+0.3%
7Cobbdale$942,394+0.2%
8Colchester Hunt$929,797-1.0%
9Middleridge$919,471-1.9%
10Long Branch$902,293-0.9%
11Old Lee Hills$881,961+2.1%
12George Mason$870,868-2.2%
13Kings Park West$840,968-0.2%
14Country Club Hills$819,672+1.0%
15Mosby Woods$790,635+1.5%
16Greenbriar$787,918-1.4%
17Fairchester$740,226+1.7%
18Merrifield$722,813-0.7%
19Fair Lakes$648,314-1.4%
20Fair Oaks$644,319-1.4%

Cities like Fairfax

Herndon, VA56 · StableFalls Church, VA56 · StableFredericksburg, VA67 · RisingDumfries, VA64 · Rising

Run the numbers for Fairfax

ToolCan I afford Fairfax?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a Fairfax rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare Fairfax to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolFairfax cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
47° / 27°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
87° / 65°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
205
~56% of year
Annual precip
44″ rain
14″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Moderate
Tornado
Low
Wildfire
Low
Earthquake
Low
Flood
Moderate

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Fairfax listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
70%
Humid climate
Median household income
$87,200
Virginia state median
Top industries (state-level)
Government/DefenseTech (NoVa)Shipbuilding

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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