Florence, AZ — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·Arizona·Florence

Pinal County · Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler · population 24,891

ShrinkingSmall-town feel
View watchlist →
45
Cooling
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Florence stands

Population shrinking 1.8% per year.

Median home $332,905
1-year -2.2%
5-yr CAGR +4.2%
vs 5-yr peak -14.2%
Population -1.8%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2022-08$333k$155k$238k$321k$404k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
32/100
Very car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
15/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
72/100
Strong remote-work fit
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$1,795/mo$1,593$1,771$1,94920242026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent9610410020242026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 15.5
Lean buy

At a 15.5 price-to-rent ratio, Florence is in the 'depends on horizon' zone. Buy if you'll be there 5+ years and value flexibility on the home; rent if you might move, want zero maintenance friction, or expect rates to drop.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
39 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
60 · w22%
Distance from peak
32 · w18%
Population growth
18 · w16%
Rent YoY
56 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
75 · w10%
Long thesis

Florence has held up across the cycle: home values at $332,905 with +4.2% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Florence's population is shrinking 1.8% per year. Housing demand has to come from somewhere — if people are leaving, the buyer pool is shrinking faster than the inventory. That eventually shows up in price.

About Florence

Florence is a city in Pinal County, Arizona, with an estimated population of 24,891. It anchors the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro area. The population has contracted 1.8% per year on average since 2020. The median home value in Florence is $332,905 as of 2026-04, down 2.2% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +4.2% annual growth, and the market currently sits about 14% below its 5-year peak. Rents in Florence average $1,795 per month, roughly flat year-over-year (+1.6%). The composite momentum score is 45 of 100 (Cooling). Buyers may find more room to negotiate; sellers should price realistically.

Bull case

The data is the data: Florence has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 1-criteria momentum score on this page.

Bear case

Net out-migration: population shrinking 1.8% per year — services, schools, and tax base will follow.
Cooling: -2.2% over the trailing year — momentum has stalled.
14% off recent peak — buyers are getting through-the-cycle pricing, not the peak.

Playbook

Buyer

You have leverage. Negotiate price, ask for closing-cost credits, and don't waive inspection. Walk-away power is real in a Cooling market — use it.

Seller

Price aggressively (at or below recent sold comps) or be prepared to wait. Concessions — rate buydowns, closing costs, repair credits — are how deals close right now.

Investor

Cap rates are more attractive than they were 12 months ago but the appreciation tailwind is gone. Confirm tenant demand, vacancy rates, and exit liquidity before committing capital.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Pinal County right now.

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Pinal County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Cities like Florence

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
65° / 41°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
106° / 79°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
286
~78% of year
Annual precip
14″ rain
2″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
Very low
Tornado
Very low
Wildfire
High
Earthquake
Low
Flood
Low

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Florence listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
36%
Very dry climate
Median household income
$72,900
Arizona state median
Top industries (state-level)
HealthcareConstructionTech

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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