The 20 fastest-growing US cities, the 20 fastest-shrinking, and what the patterns tell us about American migration in 2026.
The big picture
Net domestic migration in the US continues a pattern that started in 2020 but with new wrinkles in 2026. The dominant flows: from high-tax, high-cost coastal markets toward the Sun Belt and Mountain West. The new wrinkle: deceleration in classic Sun Belt winners (parts of Florida, Phoenix) as costs catch up, with growth shifting to Idaho, South Carolina, Tennessee, and second-tier Texas metros.
Fastest-growing cities (population CAGR, 2020-2024)
| # | City | Pop CAGR | Pop 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fulshear, TX | +34.2%/yr | 54,629 |
| 2 | Celina, TX | +32.5%/yr | 51,661 |
| 3 | Princeton, TX | +21.4%/yr | 37,019 |
| 4 | Royse City, TX | +18.2%/yr | 26,387 |
| 5 | Mableton, GA | +17.7%/yr | 78,314 |
| 6 | Anna, TX | +17.3%/yr | 31,986 |
| 7 | Melissa, TX | +17.2%/yr | 26,194 |
| 8 | Forney, TX | +13.2%/yr | 38,572 |
| 9 | Haines City, FL | +12.1%/yr | 42,073 |
| 10 | Hutto, TX | +11.5%/yr | 42,661 |
| 11 | Fate, TX | +11.2%/yr | 27,467 |
| 12 | Saratoga Springs, UT | +11.1%/yr | 57,411 |
| 13 | Georgetown, TX | +10.8%/yr | 101,344 |
| 14 | Leland, NC | +10.7%/yr | 34,451 |
| 15 | Leander, TX | +10.3%/yr | 87,511 |
| 16 | Fort Mill, SC | +10.3%/yr | 36,244 |
| 17 | Prosper, TX | +10.2%/yr | 44,503 |
| 18 | Centerton, AR | +9.7%/yr | 25,745 |
| 19 | Kyle, TX | +9.6%/yr | 65,833 |
| 20 | Waukee, IA | +9.5%/yr | 34,420 |
What unites this list: most are mid-size Mountain West, Texas, Carolinas, and Florida cities — all with no-state-income-tax or favorable state tax treatment, all with new-home construction supply that absorbs in-migration without choking off growth.
Fastest-shrinking cities
| # | City | Pop CAGR | Pop 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greenville, MS | -2.3%/yr | 27,015 |
| 2 | Jackson, MS | -2.1%/yr | 141,449 |
| 3 | St. Louis, MO | -1.9%/yr | 279,695 |
| 4 | Brooklyn Center, MN | -1.5%/yr | 31,755 |
| 5 | Pine Bluff, AR | -1.5%/yr | 38,785 |
| 6 | New Iberia, LA | -1.5%/yr | 26,849 |
| 7 | Shreveport, LA | -1.5%/yr | 176,578 |
| 8 | Manhattan Beach, CA | -1.5%/yr | 33,453 |
| 9 | Union City, CA | -1.4%/yr | 66,196 |
| 10 | New Orleans, LA | -1.4%/yr | 362,701 |
| 11 | Cerritos, CA | -1.4%/yr | 46,851 |
| 12 | Lynwood, CA | -1.4%/yr | 63,596 |
| 13 | Twentynine Palms, CA | -1.4%/yr | 26,563 |
| 14 | San Francisco, CA | -1.4%/yr | 827,526 |
| 15 | Clinton, MS | -1.3%/yr | 26,617 |
| 16 | Pleasanton, CA | -1.3%/yr | 75,664 |
| 17 | Rancho Palos Verdes, CA | -1.3%/yr | 40,064 |
| 18 | Houma, LA | -1.3%/yr | 31,671 |
| 19 | Lawndale, CA | -1.3%/yr | 30,160 |
| 20 | Beverly Hills, CA | -1.3%/yr | 31,027 |
The shrinkage pattern: legacy Rust Belt + Northeastern + California cities that lost their employer anchors or got priced out of competitiveness. Many of these are still livable, walkable cities — the loss is the opportunity for value-oriented buyers.
State-level growth leaders
| # | State | Avg city CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | TX | +3.1%/yr avg |
| 2 | SC | +2.7%/yr avg |
| 3 | AZ | +2.4%/yr avg |
| 4 | ID | +2.4%/yr avg |
| 5 | NC | +2.1%/yr avg |
| 6 | MT | +2.1%/yr avg |
| 7 | FL | +1.9%/yr avg |
| 8 | GA | +1.8%/yr avg |
| 9 | UT | +1.8%/yr avg |
| 10 | TN | +1.8%/yr avg |
States to watch in 2026: ID (Boise), SC (Greenville, Charleston), TN (Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga), TX (Austin satellites), FL (Tampa, Orlando, smaller cities). Their growth has staying power because: housing supply elastic, employer mix diversifying, tax structure favorable.
What we expect for 2026-2027
- Florida growth continues but moderates as insurance and property tax catch up.
- Texas tier-2 metros (San Antonio, Fort Worth) accelerate relative to Austin/Dallas.
- Mountain West (ID, MT, UT, AZ) continues attracting remote workers despite rising prices.
- Rust Belt resurgence pockets emerge in Pittsburgh, Cleveland-adjacent Ohio, Indianapolis suburbs.
- California outflow continues but at slower pace; some return migration to outlying CA metros.
How to use this report
If you’re relocating, use the moving-TO list as a hunting ground for places that have established growth trajectories. Use the moving-FROM list to identify markets where you might find value (high-quality housing stock at depressed prices).
If you’re investing, the moving-TO cities offer appreciation potential but you’re paying for the trend. The moving-FROM cities offer rental yield with downside risk.
Data sources: US Census place population (2020 + 2024 estimates), Zillow ZHVI/ZORI. Population CAGR is annualized compound growth between Census periods.