Little Elm, TX — Momentum Score, Home Values & Best-For

All states·Texas·Little Elm

Denton County · Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington · population 61,219

Bargain huntersGrowing fastRenter-friendly
Little Elm, TX
Image: Wikipedia · Little Elm, Texas
OverviewCost of livingMoving guide
View watchlist →
46
Cooling
Momentum score · 0–100

Where Little Elm stands

17% off 5-year peak. home values down 7.3% in the last year. population growing 7.1% per year.

Median home $408,201
1-year -7.3%
5-yr CAGR +3.4%
vs 5-yr peak -16.7%
Population +7.1%/yr

Home value trajectory · last 10 years

Zillow ZHVI · monthly
peak 2022-07$408k$245k$333k$422k$510k201620182020202220242026

Lifestyle scores

🚶
Walkability
35/100
Car-dependent
Estimated from population density. Higher = denser, more amenities within walking distance.
🚉
Public transit
22/100
Transit limited
Curated list of major US transit systems + population-based estimate. Higher = real subway/rail/bus options.
💻
Remote work fit
87/100
Excellent for remote work
Composite of city size, housing cost, state tax structure, and region's remote-work track record.

Scores are heuristic estimates from population density, state, and known transit/walkable cities. Not based on a paid Walk Score / Transit Score API — see methodology for the formula.

Rent trajectory · last 5 years

Zillow ZORI · monthly
$2,235/mo$1,794$2,116$2,439202220242026

Home value vs rent · indexed to 100

Both rebased at first month of ZORI data (~2015)
Home valueRent118117100120140202220242026

Rent vs buy

Price-to-rent ratio: 15.2
Lean buy

At a 15.2 price-to-rent ratio, Little Elm is in the 'depends on horizon' zone. Buy if you'll be there 5+ years and value flexibility on the home; rent if you might move, want zero maintenance friction, or expect rates to drop.

How the momentum score breaks down

methodology →
Home YoY
16 · w22%
Home 5-yr CAGR
56 · w22%
Distance from peak
28 · w18%
Population growth
90 · w16%
Rent YoY
41 · w12%
Home 10-yr CAGR
57 · w10%
Long thesis

Little Elm has held up across the cycle: home values at $408,201 with +3.4% 5-year CAGR. The bull case is structural — population, location, employer base — and holds even if next year's print is soft.

Short thesis

Little Elm is down 7.3% over the last 12 months and the trend isn't flattening. Falling knife rule applies: you don't catch one with your hands, you wait for it to hit the floor and stop moving.

About Little Elm

Little Elm is a city in Denton County, Texas, with an estimated population of 61,219. It anchors the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area. The population has grown 7.1% per year on average between 2020 and 2024 — among the faster-growing communities in the state. The median home value in Little Elm is $408,201 as of 2026-04, down 7.3% over the last 12 months. Over the last five years, home values have averaged +3.4% annual growth, and the market currently sits about 17% below its 5-year peak. Rents in Little Elm average $2,235 per month, roughly flat year-over-year (-0.9%). The composite momentum score is 46 of 100 (Cooling). Buyers may find more room to negotiate; sellers should price realistically.

▲ Bull case

●People are voting with their feet: population growing 7.1% per year since 2020 — that’s faster than ~80% of US cities.
○The data is the data: Little Elm has at least 5 years of Zillow tracking, full Census identification, and is included in the 2-criteria momentum score on this page.

▼ Bear case

●Prices actively falling: down 7.3% in the last 12 months — buyer sentiment has flipped. Sellers competing on price.
●17% off recent peak — buyers are getting through-the-cycle pricing, not the peak.

About Little Elm (Wikipedia)

Little Elm is a city in Denton County, Texas, United States, and a part of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex. It is an extended suburb of Denton; its population was 46,453 as of the 2020 census. In 2000, the census population was at 3,646. By the 2010 census, the city total had jumped to 25,898, making Little Elm one of the fastest-growing municipalities by percentage in Texas since 2000. The July 1, 2022 census estimates Little Elm's population as 55,357.

Source: Wikipedia · this summary is contributed and licensed under CC-BY-SA.

City facts

MayorMayor
Area22.09 sq mi
Elevation515 ft
Motto"Town With A Lake Attitude"Cite web
Density2102.89/sq mi

Extracted from the Wikipedia infobox. Values may be slightly out of date relative to the latest sources.

Playbook

Buyer

You have leverage. Negotiate price, ask for closing-cost credits, and don't waive inspection. Walk-away power is real in a Cooling market — use it.

Seller

Price aggressively (at or below recent sold comps) or be prepared to wait. Concessions — rate buydowns, closing costs, repair credits — are how deals close right now.

Investor

Cap rates are more attractive than they were 12 months ago but the appreciation tailwind is gone. Confirm tenant demand, vacancy rates, and exit liquidity before committing capital.

Local safety & alerts

No active National Weather Service alerts for Denton County right now.

NWS active alerts (TX)Texas Emergency ManagementHow to prepare (NWS)

Public-safety links are official .gov sources, not curated by us. Denton County routes NWS alerts; check the state EM portal for non-weather emergencies.

Neighborhoods of Little Elm

23 tracked · ranked by median home value
1Sunrise Bay$947,106-5.2%
2Eagels Landing$904,947-4.0%
3Emerald Sound$755,936-2.0%
4Frisco Hills$611,395-4.5%
5Lakewood Village$590,866+0.1%
6Union Park$492,588-6.1%
7Wildridge$484,764-6.9%
8Sunset Pointe$458,441-7.3%
9Eldorado Estates$445,323-6.1%
10Woodridge Estates$410,787-4.6%
11Frisco Ranch$407,795-7.0%
12Stardust Ranch$382,892-6.1%
13Cottonwood Point$374,487-5.7%
14Paloma Creek$355,443-8.8%
15Glen Cove$346,123-5.8%
16Lakewood Estates$343,341-5.5%
17Woodlake$342,106-6.0%
18Marina Vista Estates$331,989-8.0%
19Cresent Oaks Beach Estates$327,626-6.1%
20Wynfield Farms$325,244-4.8%
21Lakeside$324,069-3.7%
22Robinson Ridge$323,844-7.4%
23Mariner Pointe$312,577-6.0%

Cities like Little Elm

Elgin, TX45 · CoolingLockhart, TX47 · CoolingLewisville, TX54 · StableBastrop, TX50 · Stable

Run the numbers for Little Elm

ToolCan I afford Little Elm?Income → city shortlistToolROI on a Little Elm rentalCap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCRToolCompare Little Elm to anywhereSide-by-side up to 3 citiesToolLittle Elm cost-of-livingEquivalent income elsewhere

Sources: Zillow ZHVI (home values), Zillow ZORI (rents), US Census ACS + place population. Updated when source agencies publish revisions.

Climate & natural-disaster risk

Winter (Jan)
60° / 39°
avg high / low
Summer (Jul)
95° / 73°
avg high / low
Sunny days/yr
232
~64% of year
Annual precip
29″ rain
1″ snow
Disaster risk (1=very low, 5=very high)
Hurricane
High
Tornado
Very high
Wildfire
Moderate
Earthquake
Low
Flood
Very high

State-level averages from NOAA Climate Normals (1991-2020) and FEMA National Risk Index. City-level conditions can vary significantly within a state.

Local sports teams

Major professional teams the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area cheers for. Detailed stats, schedules, and player pages on intherafters.com.

Current weather

Loading current conditions…

7-day forecast on weather.gov →

Find rentals & listings

Open current Little Elm listings on the major real-estate sites.

Links open the live search on the destination site — results are always current.

Local news & community

Updated 2026-05-21 from Google News + Reddit RSS. Headlines link to original sources.

Local economy & environment

Humidity
64%
Moderate climate
Median household income
$73,000
Texas state median
Top industries (state-level)
Energy/Oil & GasTech (Austin)Healthcare

Humidity is annual average relative humidity (NOAA). Income is Census ACS 5-year estimate. Industries are largest employment sectors statewide (BLS); the local mix in a given city may vary.

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